全球经济的周期已经在2003年的第四季度见顶。全球市场看起来还有动力推动经济周期向上。有一小部分投资者已经认识到全球经济的增长速度开始放缓了,但是,他们预期减速度应该很小。这种减速度介于30%到50%之间,中国的减速度达到50%,其他经济体的减速度在30%左右。主要的原因是:(1)虽然美国政府在不断地实施刺激经济的政策,但是,美国民众的收入增长疲弱,其试图吹起消费大潮的经济政策已经不大起作用了; The cycle of the global economy has peaked in the fourth quarter of 2003. The global market also seems motivated to move up the business cycle. A small number of investors have realized that the growth of the global economy has started to slow down, but they expect the deceleration to be small. The deceleration is between 30% and 50%, the deceleration of China is 50%, and that of other economies is about 30%. The main reasons are: (1) Although the U.S. government is constantly implementing the policy of stimulating the economy, the U.S. people’s income growth is weak and their economic policies that try to inflate the consumer trend have become less effective.