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2014年3月8日,马航MH370航班在从吉隆坡飞往北京的途中失联.2015年7月29日,位于南印度洋西侧的法属留尼汪岛发现疑似属于该航班的残骸,后经法国检方证实该残骸来自失联的MH370航班.首先从观测数据入手,对印度洋表面漂流浮标数据进行分析,发现有11个经过南印度洋疑似坠机海域的表面漂流浮标最终经过留尼汪岛海域,其中有2个向西北方向漂移的浮标耗时500 d左右,与残骸实际漂移时间相近,从观测事实的角度证实了飞机残骸漂移至留尼汪岛的可能性.基于Leeway海上漂移理论和蒙特卡洛方法,建立了南印度洋海上目标漂移轨迹预测模式.分析处理了南印度洋的再分析风场、流场数据作为动力强迫场,在疑似坠机海域设置大量的漂移目标,设置相隔5 d不同初始时刻的3组实验,每组实验包括风漂系数为1.2%,1.5%和1.8%三种情况,对目标进行500 d的漂移轨迹预测,预测结果与表面漂流浮标轨迹分析结果基本一致,说明漂移轨迹预测模式性能是可靠的.结果显示,不同初始时刻3组实验的目标大部分最终位于印度洋10°~35°S之间,且都有一定数量的目标能够漂移到留尼汪岛海域,平均概率为16‰.这些漂移到留尼汪岛海域的浮标轨迹类型可分成三类:第一类是先向东北漂移,到达澳大利亚西部海域时再向西北漂移,在15°S附近受南赤道流的影响再向西漂移;第二类为先向北再向西漂移;第三类为向西北漂移.这也从侧面验证了之前相关部门推算的MH370航班在南印度洋的坠落区域及搜寻区域大致正确.
On March 8, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 lost contact on its way to Kuala Lumpur from Kuala Lumpur on July 29. On July 29, 2015, the wreckage suspected to belong to the French Reunion Island on the western South Indian Ocean, The French prosecutors confirmed the wreckage from the associated MH370 flight.First, starting from the observed data, the Indian Ocean surface drifting buoys data analysis and found that there were 11 surface drift buoys suspected of going through the South Indian Ocean eventually passing through the waters of the Reunion Island , Of which two floats drifting northwest about 500 d, which is similar to the actual drift time of the wreckage, and from the point of view of facts, the possibility of drift of the wreckage to the island of Reunion is confirmed.Based on the theory of Leeway sea drift and Monte- Carlo method was used to establish the prediction model of the drift trajectory of the South Indian Ocean at sea.The analysis and processing of the reanalysis wind field and the flow field data in the South Indian Ocean were used as power forcing fields and a large number of drift targets were set up in the suspected sea area At the initial time, three groups of experiments, each including three cases of wind drift coefficient of 1.2%, 1.5% and 1.8%, predicted the target’s drift trajectory for 500 days. The prediction results and table The drifting buoy trajectory analysis results are basically the same, indicating that the performance of the drift trajectory prediction model is reliable. The results show that most of the targets of the three initial experiments are located in the Indian Ocean between 10 ° ~ 35 ° S and have a certain number of targets Drifting to the waters of the island of Reunion with an average probability of 16 ‰ .The types of buoy trajectories drifting into the waters of the island of Reunion can be divided into three categories: the first is the drift to the northeast first, then the drift to the northwest when reaching the western waters of Australia , Then drift westward again by the influence of the southern equatorial stream near 15 ° S; the second one is to drift northward and then westward; the third one is to drift to the northwest. This verifies the MH370 flight previously estimated by relevant departments The area of fall and search area in the South Indian Ocean is generally correct.