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目的通过对预警信息的分析,为预警系统的推广和预警结果的合理利用提供参考。方法通过传染病自动预警系统导出2010年河南省传染病预警信息,利用Excel2003完成数据计算与分析。结果 2010年共收到预警信号20035次,响应率达100%。有102当地判断为疑似事件,疑似率0.51%。现场调查率73.53%,确定为暴发流行的有24起,预警信号阳性率为0.12%。预警病种17种,预警次数前3位的病种是丙肝、其他感染性腹泻和流行性腮腺炎。结论预警过于敏感,预警阈值偏低,现场调查率偏低。建议可以适当提高预警阈值,适时调整预警病种,同时规范传染病报告质量。
Aim Through the analysis of early warning information, provide reference for the promotion of early warning system and the rational utilization of early warning results. Methods The early warning information of infectious diseases in Henan Province was derived from the automatic warning system of infectious diseases in 2010, and the data calculation and analysis were done by Excel2003. The results in 2010 received a total of 20035 warning signals, the response rate of 100%. There are 102 local cases of suspected incidents, the suspicion rate of 0.51%. The site investigation rate was 73.53%, identified as outbreak of epidemic 24, the positive rate of early warning signal was 0.12%. 17 kinds of early warning disease, the first three warnings the number of diseases are hepatitis C, other infectious diarrhea and mumps. Conclusion Early warning is too sensitive, early warning threshold is low, and field investigation rate is low. It is suggested that warning thresholds should be appropriately increased, early warning diseases adjusted in time, and the quality of infectious disease reporting standardized.