论文部分内容阅读
冰川的脆弱性是指冰川对气候变化的脆弱性.基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可比性原则、可操作性原则,以气候变化脆弱性的暴露度、敏感性与适应能力三要素为标准,遴选构建了我国冰川脆弱性评价指标体系.使用中国1961-2007年594个站点的年平均气温和590个站点的年降水量资料、中国第一、二次冰川编目数据,借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冰川脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了中国冰川脆弱性的现状.基于IPCC A1B气候情景下气温和降水量变化预估数值、21世纪冰川变化预估数据,对2030年代和2050年代的冰川脆弱性进行了初步预估.依据自然分类法,将冰川脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5个等级.结果表明:从现状看,中国冰川对气候变化很脆弱,约92%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性,而且强度脆弱区和极强度脆弱区面积占研究区总面积的41%;情景和动态上,2030年代和2050年代仍有约80%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性,但整体上冰川脆弱性呈减弱趋势,局部地区冰川仍处于强度和极强度脆弱状态.冰川脆弱性是多因素综合影响的结果,在现状情况下,冰川脆弱程度主要取决于冰川的地形暴露和冰川对气候变化的敏感性;2030年代和2050年代除地形因素之外,降水量变化上升成为冰川脆弱程度的关键影响因素.在未来气候持续变暖情况下,冰川脆弱性不增反降,冰川对气候变化的敏感性降低可能是主要原因.
Glacier vulnerability refers to the vulnerability of glaciers to climate change.Based on the principle of combining science with reality, the principle of comprehensiveness and dominance, the principle of comparability, the principle of operability, and the sensitivity to the vulnerability of climate change are sensitive Sex and adaptability as the standard, select the index system of glacier vulnerability assessment in our country.Using the annual average temperature of 594 stations in China from 1961 to 2007 and the annual precipitation data of 590 stations, the data of the first and second glaciers in China According to the IPCC A1B climate change model, the model of glacier vulnerability index was built by RS and GIS technology platform, and the glacial vulnerability index was constructed on the regional scale. Based on the change of temperature and precipitation in IPCC A1B Estimated values of glacier changes in the 21st century, preliminary estimates of glacier vulnerability in the 2030s and 2050s are based on the natural taxonomy of glaciers divided into potential vulnerability, mild vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, strength Fragile and extremely fragile.The results show that: from the current situation, the glacier in China is very vulnerable to climate change, and about 92% glaciers have different extents And 41% of the total area of the study area. In terms of scenarios and dynamics, about 80% of the glaciation area remained in the 2030s and 2050s with varying degrees of vulnerability, However, the glacier vulnerability is on the whole declining, and the glacier in some areas is still in an intense and extremely fragile state.Clarification of glacier is the result of a combination of multi-factor effects. Under current conditions, glacier fragility mainly depends on the glacier’s topographic exposure and The sensitivity of glaciers to climate change; in addition to the topographic factors in the 2030s and 2050s, the increase in precipitation has become the key factor affecting the degree of glacier vulnerability .In the future climate warming, the glacier vulnerability does not increase or decrease, glaciers Lower sensitivity to climate change may be the main reason.