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１引言与普通疾病不同，慢性病尤其癌症的疗效评价取决于治疗后病人的生存时间是否延长。这被认为是疗效评价的最终标准（ＣＬｌｉｌｅｒｏｔａｌ，ｌｏｐ）［‘ｊ或最后裁判员（ＨＡｓ，１９８３）［‘］。与普通观测指标不同，生存时间并非永远能观测到。比如收治ｉｔｏ例食
1 INTRODUCTION Unlike ordinary diseases, the evaluation of the efficacy of chronic diseases, especially cancer, depends on whether or not the patient’s survival time is prolonged after treatment. This is considered to be the final criterion for efficacy evaluation (CLlilerotal, lop) [’j or the final referee (HAs, 1983) [’]. Unlike ordinary observations, survival time is not always observable. For example, treat food