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道路网络系统本质上是一个随机动态系统。传统的可靠性分析假设路网系统处于长期均衡状态,不能反映路网系统的动态可靠性。基于传统行程时间可靠性,明确引入时间维度,提出了行程时间动态可靠性概念,定义为每天出行者实际行程时间与预计行程时间之比不超过可接受水平的概率。考虑路网供给随机变化,基于随机动态交通分配模型和Monte Carlo方法,建立了估计路网行程时间动态可靠性的近似算法。最后,在一个算例网络上对提出的方法进行了验证。
Road network system is essentially a random dynamic system. The traditional reliability analysis assumes that the road network system is in a long-term equilibrium state and can not reflect the dynamic reliability of the road network system. Based on the traditional travel time reliability, the time dimension is explicitly introduced, and the concept of dynamic reliability of travel time is proposed. It is defined as the probability that the ratio of the actual travel time to the estimated travel time does not exceed the acceptable travel time per day. Considering the random change of road network supply, an approximate algorithm for estimating the dynamic reliability of road network travel time is established based on stochastic dynamic traffic assignment model and Monte Carlo method. Finally, the proposed method is validated on an example network.