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最近国际上对原油价格的今后趋势议论颇多。看法大致有两种:一种认为还要继续下跌,在世界经济复苏以前,油价将徘徊在每桶25～28美元之间,有的人甚至认为1983年的油价将跌到每桶15～20美元之间;另一种看法认为油价大体上将稳定在目前的每桶34美元上下,而从中、长期来看,总的趋势是逐步上升,直到接近于替代能源的生产成本。对油价涨落的不同看法,在一定程度上也反映了不同国家和集团的利益。西方石油垄断集团和工业国希望油价下跌,首先是因为这将打击和挤垮石油输出国组织,其次也有利于它们的国际收支平衡。石
Recently there have been many discussions on the future trend of crude oil prices. There are two general views: One thinks that it will continue to fall. Before the world economy recovers, the price of oil will fall between 25 and 28 US dollars per barrel. Some people even think that the oil price in 1983 will fall to 15 to 20 per barrel. Between the U.S. dollar and another view, oil prices will generally stabilize at the current level of 34 U.S. dollars per barrel. In the medium to long term, the general trend will gradually increase until it approaches the production cost of alternative energy sources. Different views on the fluctuation of oil prices also reflect the interests of different countries and groups to some extent. Western oil monopolies and industrial nations hope that the price of oil will drop, first because it will attack and squeeze the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and secondly, it will benefit their balance of payments. stone