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自20世纪60年代以来,由于气候变化和人类活动的影响,洮儿河中上游地区出现了湿地退化、水土流失等严重的生态环境问题,成为我国东北典型的生态敏感地区。本文从水热平衡的角度,利用水分适宜性指数(cr),分析了洮儿河中上游地区1961–2012年的水分适宜性,采用Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验和累积距平方法检测了径流突变点,以突变点为界,把整个研究时期划分为四个阶段,采用累积量斜率变化率分析法(SCRCQ)分析了不同阶段气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响,最后利用敏感系数法和SCRCQ方法相结合,把气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响转化为对cr变化的贡献。研究结果表明:近52年以来,洮儿河中上游地区水分适宜性指数(c_r)呈减小趋势,其影响因子净辐射、径流量也呈现减小趋势,降水量呈现增加趋势,其中只有降水量变化趋势不显著,没有通过a=0.05的Mann-Kendall显著性检验;1961–2012年间,洮南站径流量发生了三次突变,尽管每个阶段降水量和人类活动对径流量的影响程度不同,但人类活动是影响径流量的主要因子;52年以来,对cr变化影响最大的因子是降水量,大于人类活动和净辐射对cr变化的贡献。
Since the 1960s, due to the influence of climate change and human activities, serious ecological and environmental problems such as wetland degradation, soil erosion and soil erosion have emerged in the upper and middle reaches of Taoer River and become typical ecologically sensitive areas in Northeast China. In this paper, from the perspective of hydrothermal balance, the suitability index of water (cr) was used to analyze the suitability of water in the middle and upper reaches of Taoer River from 1961 to 2012. The Mann-Kendall method, the sliding t-test and the cumulative distance method Point, taking the mutation point as the boundary, the whole research period is divided into four stages, and the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff at different stages is analyzed by Cumulative slope rate of change (SCRCQ) method. Finally, by using the sensitivity coefficient method and SCRCQ approach to translate the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff into a contribution to the change in cr. The results showed that the water suitability index (c_r) of middle and upper middle reaches of Taoer River had a decreasing trend in the past 52 years, and the net radiation and runoff of its influencing factors also showed a decreasing trend and the precipitation showed an increasing trend. Only the precipitation The trend of change was not significant, and the Mann-Kendall significance test of a = 0.05 was not passed. From 1961 to 2012, there were three sudden changes in runoff at Taonan Station. Although the influence of precipitation and human activities on runoff was different at each stage, However, human activities are the main factors affecting the runoff. Since 52 years, the most influential factor on cr change is precipitation, which is greater than the contribution of human activities and net radiation to changes in cr.