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本文将家庭消费高峰期因素纳入,试探讨家庭消费结构变化对于中国碳排放量的影响。根据家庭生命周期理论在消费领域的相关研究,本文以家庭成员在40-54岁年龄段可能存在更多消费为假设,在修正了STIRPAT环境压力模型的基础上,用“家庭户碳排放模型”分析了家庭消费阶段差异对碳排放变化的影响;同时,采用情景分析方法,对未来家庭消费高峰期变化对碳排放的可能影响做了预测分析。
This article will be the peak factor of household consumption into the period, to explore the changes in household consumption structure of China’s carbon emissions. According to the study of family life cycle theory in the field of consumption, this paper assumes that family members may have more consumption in the 40-54 age group. Based on the amendment of STIRPAT environmental stress model, "Analyzed the impact of household consumption stage differences on changes in carbon emissions; at the same time, using scenario analysis method, the possible impact of changes in future peak household consumption on carbon emissions was predicted and analyzed.