东南极海冰异常与中国夏季洪涝

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本文分析了东南极(0—120°E)海冰净冰面积指数距平值的异常变化(1973-1989)分别与中国160个站夏季(5—8月)降水的耦合交叉领先及滞后48个月的相关强度时间序列和空间场的分布特征。发现东南极海冰变化异常与否和中国的降水有以下密切关系。1.在东南极海冰由夏过渡到冬半年的过渡季节3月份,海冰的迅速增长与中国5周长江以南,南岭以北的东南亚亚热带湿润气候雨区(Ⅱa)[3]有极密切的关系。当海冰异常多或少时,该区的月降水将异常多或少,最大相关系数在永安站达0.76,是反映在我国东亚季风强弱早晚的一个重要标志。自有海冰资料以来(1973),1973年3月是近30年来冰情最严重的一年,而Ⅱa区也是建国以来5月特大洪涝的一年。2.我国夏季降水是东亚季风和印度季风及西风带强弱的综合反映,夏季降水又是后期东南板初夏(12月)海冰强弱的重要标志,这是关系到我国南极考察的重要季节,冰情预报极为关键。3.东南极海冰以超前1-3年的时间与我国降水有极其重要相关期,是研究我国气候文化的重要依据之一。4.东南极海冰有先于澳大利亚冷高2-3个月的极密切的关系。澳大利亚冷高是反映东亚季风的重要标志之一,则东南极海冰也同样是重要先兆依据。 In this paper, the anomalous changes in the net ice area anomaly value of the sea ice in the East Antarctic (0-120 ° E) (1973-1989) and the summer (5-8 month) precipitation of 160 stations in China are analyzed respectively. Relevant intensity time series of months and distribution characteristics of space field. It is found that there is the following close relationship between the anomalous changes in the East Antarctic sea ice and the precipitation in China. 1. In the transition season from the summer to the winter in the East Antarctic sea ice, the rapid growth of sea ice in March was closely related to the southeastern subtropical humid climate zone (Ⅱa) south of the Yangtze River and north of Nanling in China in March relationship. When the sea ice is abnormally more or less, the monthly precipitation in this area will be abnormally more or less, and the maximum correlation coefficient reaches 0.76 at Yong’an Station, which is an important indicator reflecting the strength and weakness of the East Asian monsoon in our country. Since the sea ice data (1973), March 1973 is the most serious icefall in the past 30 years, while IIa is also the year of major flooding in May since the founding of the People’s Republic. 2. The summer precipitation in China is a comprehensive reflection of the strength of the East Asian monsoon, the Indian monsoon and the Western Westerly. Summer precipitation is an important indicator of the intensity of sea ice in the early summer (December) of the southeast plate in the latter part of the year. This is an important season that is related to the study of Antarctica in our country. Emotional forecast is crucial. 3. The East Antarctic sea ice is one of the important bases for studying the climate and culture of China in the period of one to three years ahead of the precipitation in our country. 4. East Antarctic sea ice before the cold in Australia 2-3 months very close relationship. Cold high in Australia is one of the most important symbols reflecting the monsoon in East Asia. Sea ice in the southeast Antarctic is also an important precursor.
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