尽管工程量清单计价模式已经得到普及,但是大部分企业仍然没有建立一套反映自身实际条件的企业定额,施工企业对利润率的预期依旧影响着施工企业的最终报价和中标率。针对利润率预期的计算问题,在人工神经网络模型的基础上对其进行改进,并结合蒙特卡洛计算方法对其进行修正,以提高对利润率预期的准确性,为决策提供可靠的依据。 Although the bill of quantities pricing model has been popularized, most enterprises still have not set up a set of quotas that reflect their own actual conditions. Construction enterprises’ expectations of profit margins still affect the final bidding and winning rates of construction enterprises. Aiming at the calculation problem of expected profit rate, this paper improves on the basis of artificial neural network model and modifies it with Monte Carlo calculation method to improve the accuracy of expected profit rate and provide a reliable basis for decision-making.