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基于长期与短期两个视角,采用TY因果检验、广义脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,系统考察国际油价及宏观经济变量对我国黄金、白银和铂金3种贵金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击作用下我国贵金属价格的反馈作用。结果表明:国际油价在长、短期内都是贵金属价格变动的重要原因,而汇率则只在短期内对贵金属价格产生影响,利率在预测贵金属价格上则处于失效状态。此外,在短期内,贵金属价格对国际油价与利率也存在一定反馈作用。
Based on the long-term and short-term perspectives, the impact of the international oil price and macroeconomic variables on the prices of gold, silver and platinum in China were systematically investigated using TY causality test, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition. The role of China’s precious metals under the feedback role. The results show that the international oil price is an important reason for the price change of precious metals both in the long term and in the short term, while the exchange rate only affects the price of precious metals in the short term, while the interest rate is in a failure state when the price of precious metals is predicted. In addition, in the short term, precious metal prices also have some feedback on international oil prices and interest rates.