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组合预测模型已经成为滑坡变形预测的一种有效方法.通过建立相关性优先的滑坡位移组合预测模型,同时顾及预测精度,以三峡库区店子湾滑坡为例,对GPS监测累积水平位移进行预测,同时构建平方和误差(SSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、均方百分比误差(MSPE)等5个评价指标进行全方位评价,由计算结果可知,该模型预测的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)仅为5.5%,相关系数达到0.72,取得了较好的效果.
Combined forecasting model has become an effective method of landslide deformation prediction.Based on the combination forecasting model of landslide displacement with priority, and taking into account the prediction accuracy, taking the Dunzai landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir as an example, the cumulative horizontal displacement of GPS monitoring is predicted , And constructed five evaluation indexes of square error (SSE), average absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), average absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSPE) The calculated results show that the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) predicted by the model is only 5.5%, and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.72, and the good result is achieved.