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本文分析了1996—2014年中国牛羊肉进口的变化特征,借助DID和Heckman两步法估计CNFTA框架下中国牛羊肉进口的贸易创造与转移效应,并对比混合OLS与Heckman两阶段模型回归结果。实证结果显示:混合OLS与Heckman两阶段估计结果存在差异;CNFTA推动了中国牛羊肉进口贸易发展,新西兰牛肉进口贸易扩大效应大于其他国家,而同其他国家羊肉进口贸易的扩大效应大于新西兰。最后从积极开展FTA谈判、适当增加牛羊肉产品进口、充分评估FTA对相关产业的冲击三个方面提出了政策建议。
This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s beef and mutton imports from 1996 to 2014, and uses DID and Heckman’s two-step method to estimate the trade creation and transfer effects of China’s beef and mutton imports under the framework of CNFTA. The results of the two-stage OLS and Heckman regression models are compared and contrasted. Empirical results show that there are differences between the two-stage estimation results of mixed OLS and Heckman. CNFTA promotes the development of Chinese beef and mutton import trade. New Zealand beef import trade has greater expansion effect than other countries. However, the expansion effect of mutton import trade with other countries is greater than that of New Zealand. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward from three aspects: actively conducting FTA negotiations, appropriately increasing the import of beef and mutton products, and fully assessing the impact of FTA on related industries.