房地产和基建双发驱动宏观经济企稳,背后则是金融部门信贷扩张的大力支持。信贷大幅扩张主要受益于宏观审慎监管放松和债务重组:存贷比考核取消,提升了银行的信贷投放能力;在去库存的政策任务下,房贷首付比例下降,促进了房地产上涨和信贷扩张;地方债务置换增强了地方政府融资能力,为基建投资创造了空间。与传统的经济周期不同,当前的经济回暖发生在金融周期下半场。近几年投资者关注房地产周期、信用(债务)周期波动的规律,金融周期则考虑了房地产和信用两个方面,系 Two-pronged real estate and infrastructure development have stabilized the macro-economy. Behind this is the strong support for credit expansion in the financial sector. The sharp expansion of credit mainly benefited from macroprudential regulatory easing and debt restructuring: the cancellation of the loan-to-deposit ratio test and the enhancement of credit lending capacity of banks; the downward proportion of mortgage down payment under the policy of de-stocking contributed to the rise of real estate and credit expansion; Debt replacement has strengthened the financing capability of local governments and created room for investment in infrastructure. Unlike the traditional economic cycle, the current economic recovery occurs in the second half of the financial cycle. In recent years, investors concerned about the real estate cycle, credit (debt) cycle fluctuations in the law, the financial cycle is considered real estate and credit two aspects, the Department