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自古以来,水患就是人们生命财产的最大威胁之一,全世界每年洪水造成的损失约80亿美元,约占各类自然灾害总损失的40%以上。俗话说:“水火不留情”,就是指洪水到来的突然性和灾情损失的惨重性。倘若事先能知道洪水到来的时间与水深,人们便可以采取许多措施将灾情减至最低。这一神话般的愿望在不久的将来可能会变为现实。最近由水科院与海委合作,应用二维不恒定流理论对洪泛区洪水灾害进行了模拟计算(以下简称二维模拟),并用电子计算机来模拟洪水上涨、消退全过程。已计算完的有海河水系的永定河泛区、小清河分洪区和淮河水系的濛洼分洪区,并绘制了洪水演进图、最大水深图(见图1)等一系列图表。
Since ancient times, floods are one of the biggest threats to people’s lives and property. The annual floods worldwide cause about 8 billion U.S. dollars of losses, accounting for more than 40% of the total natural disasters. As the saying goes: “mercilessly” refers to the sudden arrival of floods and the disastrous loss of the disaster. If we can know in advance the time and depth of the flood, people can take many measures to minimize the disaster. This mythical wish may become a reality in the near future. Recently, the CASS and the IOC collaborated to apply the two-dimensional unsteady flow theory to simulate the flooding disaster in the floodplain (hereinafter referred to as two-dimensional simulation) and use the computer to simulate the whole process of flood rise and subsidence. A series of charts have been drawn, including the flood evolution chart, the maximum water depth chart (see Figure 1), etc, which have been calculated for the flood diversion area of Yongding River, Xiaoqing River and Huaihe River in Haihe River system.