流行性脑脊髓膜炎(简称流脑)有8～10年流行一次的规律。预测流行的方法很多,常用的有逐步回归法、Logistic 回归法、Bayes 概率法、尤度法或似然法以及模糊数学法。以上方法预测的效率较高,但计算过程繁杂。本文介绍一种比较简单和直观的方法——疾病控制图法,对流脑作流行期前的监测。 Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (referred to as meningitis) has 8 to 10 years the prevalence of the law. There are many ways to predict the prevalence, there are gradually used stepwise regression, Logistic regression, Bayes probability, Eudemonious or likelihood method and fuzzy mathematics. The above method predicts higher efficiency, but the calculation process is complicated. This article describes a relatively simple and intuitive method - the disease control chart method, the epidemiological brain as a pre-epidemic monitoring.