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在经历了 1997— 1998年的金融危机之后 ,进入 1999年 ,国际金融环境显著改善 ,全球经济形势也明显好转。但是 ,在美国、欧盟、日本、东亚、拉美和东欧转型经济中 ,不同程度地仍存在一些影响其自身及全球经济稳定发展的隐患或制约因素 ,美国和拉美所面临的金融风险尤为突出。作者在分析了这些隐患和对我有利、制约因素后 ,提出“十五”时期随着我国改革的深入和西部大开发战略的实施 ,以及外商投资的增加 ,我国内需将逐步扩大 ,经济景气呈平稳回升态势 ,到“十五”后期经济增长率将达到 8.2 % ,外商直接投资规模将超过 85 0亿美元。但我国出口增幅会减少 ,净出口对 GDP实际增长率的贡献由“九五”时期的 0 .4个百分点下降为 - 0 .2个百分点。
After experiencing the financial crisis of 1997-1998, entering the year 1999, the international financial environment has significantly improved and the global economic situation has also obviously improved. However, in the transition economies of the United States, the EU, Japan, East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe, there are still some hidden dangers or constraints affecting themselves and the steady development of the global economy to varying degrees. The financial risks facing the United States and Latin America are particularly prominent. After analyzing these hidden dangers and benefiting me and restricting factors, the author put forward the period of the “10th Five-Year Plan”. With the deepening of China’s reform and the implementation of the strategy for the grand development of the western region and the increase of foreign investment, China’s domestic demand will gradually expand. With a steady upward trend, the economic growth rate will reach 8.2% in the latter part of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period and the scale of foreign direct investment will exceed 8.5 billion U.S. dollars. However, the growth rate of China’s exports will decrease. The contribution of net exports to the actual growth rate of GDP will decrease from 0.4 percentage point in the Ninth Five-year Plan to -0.2 percentage points.