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利用世界投入产出表和能源消费量相关数据,系统核算了中国1995—2009年的隐含能贸易量,并利用SDA方法对隐含能贸易量的变化进行了结构分解。实证结果如下:(1)1995—2009年,中国存在隐含能净出口,并且存在部门上的差异、进口来源地和出口目的地的差异;中国从韩国的隐含能进口量最大;中国向美国的隐含能出口量最大。(2)在1995—2009年,节能技术的提高会降低中国隐含能进出口量,但是列昂惕夫逆矩阵的变化和产品贸易量的变化会引起中国隐含能进出口量的增加,并且产品贸易量的变化是引起中国隐含能贸易量变化的主要原因。因此中国需要注意调整产业结构,加强与美国等国家的双边节能贸易的合作,同时注意节能技术变化、产业关联变化以及贸易量变化对中国隐含能贸易量变化的不同影响。
Using the data of the world input-output table and energy consumption, the implicit trade volume of China in 1995-2009 was systematically calculated and the structure change of implicit trade volume was decomposed by using SDA method. The empirical results are as follows: (1) In 1995-2009, there was a net implicit net export in China with the differences among sectors, sources of imports and export destinations. China implied the largest import volume from Korea, and China The United States can export the most implicitly. (2) In 1995-2009, the improvement of energy-saving technologies will reduce the implicit import and export volume in China, but the changes in the Leontief inverse matrix and the product trade volume will cause the implicit import and export volume in China to increase, And the change of product trade volume is the main reason that causes the change of implied trade volume in China. Therefore, China needs to pay attention to adjusting its industrial structure and strengthening cooperation with other countries such as the United States in energy-saving trade. At the same time, attention should be paid to the different impacts of changes in energy-saving technologies, industrial relations and changes in trade volume on China’s implicit trade volume.