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目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(capture-mark-recapture method,CMR)评价2009-2011年湖北省疾病监测点(diseases surveillance points,DSPs)死因监测数据的完整性。方法在湖北省国家DSPs的基础上,将DSPs由6个扩大至11个,抽取能代表各DSPs人口水平、经济水平、死亡水平的乡镇(街道)1个,其所有的家庭均为调查家庭,开展漏报调查。收集2009年1月1日至2011年12月31日湖北省DSPs抽样地区常规死因网络报告数据和死因漏报调查数据,人口数据以户籍人口为准。采用CMR估计目标人群的死亡人数,计算死亡率。结果 2009-2011年,湖北省DSPs抽样地区常规死因网络报告和死因漏报调查2个独立来源资料显示,全死因死亡人数分别为9 019和9 481人,死亡率分别为6.16‰和6.48‰。用CMR估计的全死因死亡人数为10 200人,死亡率为6.97‰。结论湖北省DSPs抽样地区死因监测数据完整性较好。但是,死因网络报告质量在不同的DSPs之间分布不均衡,个别DSPs存在一定的漏报现象。建议定期开展漏报调查,使用CMR校正低估的死亡率。
Objective To evaluate the completeness of the surveillance data of death surveillance stations for diseases surveillance points (DSPs) in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2011 by using capture-mark-recapture method (CMR). Methods Based on the national DSPs in Hubei Province, DSPs were expanded from 6 to 11 and 1 township (street), which could represent the population level, economic level and death level of all DSPs, was extracted. All of the families were surveyed families, Carry out underreport investigation. The data of routine cause of death caused by DSP network in Hubei Province from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011 were collected and the cause of death and omission were collected. The population data are based on the registered population. The CMR was used to estimate the number of deaths in the target population and the mortality was calculated. Results From 2009 to 2011, the routine death cause network report and cause of death and omission in the DSPs sampling area of Hubei Province were investigated. Two independent sources showed that the number of all-cause deaths was 9,019 and 9,481 respectively, with the death rates of 6.16 ‰ and 6.48 ‰, respectively. The number of all-cause deaths estimated by CMR was 10 200, with a mortality rate of 6.97 ‰. Conclusion The data of death cause monitoring in DSPs sampling area of Hubei Province is complete. However, the network quality of cause of death network is unevenly distributed among different DSPs, and some DSPs have a certain omission phenomenon. We recommend that you regularly carry out underreporting surveys and use CMR to correct underestimated mortality.