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“非典”作为一个突发事件对今年的经济增长和税收会产生一定的负面影响,这一判断是基本确定的。4月份宏观经济的一些先行指标已经显现出经济增速出现回落,如工业增加值比一季度增幅回落2.3个百分点,固定资产投资增幅回落1.1个百分点,进口增幅回落18个百分点,出口增幅回落O.2个百分点,社会消费品零售额增幅回落1.5个百分点。税收收入增幅也开始回落,预计5月份的经济增速回落更为明显。问题在于这种影响究竟有多大?是否会引起税收的大幅减少?这是各方面关注和担心的焦点。为此,笔者就这个问题做一些初步分析。
The judgment that “SARS” as a contingency has a negative impact on the economic growth and tax revenue this year is basically confirmed. Some of the leading macroeconomic indicators in April showed a slowdown in economic growth. For example, the growth rate of industrial added value dropped by 2.3 percentage points from the growth rate in the first quarter, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets eased by 1.1 percentage points, and the import growth rate eased by 18 percentage points. The growth rate of exports dropped back to O .2 percentage points, social consumer goods retail sales growth down 1.5 percentage points. The tax revenue growth also started to fall. It is expected that the economic growth in May will fall more obviously. The question is whether this kind of impact is huge and whether it will lead to a drastic reduction in tax revenue. This is the focus of concern and concern of all quarters. To this end, I do some preliminary analysis of this issue.