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本文在开放条件下通过参数和非参数方法对中国1981—2010年国民收入增长状况及其特征进行了核算。结果显示尽管中国国民收入和经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成就,但近年来全要素增长率持续下滑,国民收入增加主要依靠资本投入,可持续增长的基础并不牢固。贸易条件的恶化也在一定程度上蚕食了产出对收入增加的贡献。本文还对中国要素、产出以及两者价格之间的弹性关系进行了核算,获得了关于中国经济结构的多方面动态特征。这些特征对于中国经济结构调整和政策选择具有一定的参考价值。
This paper calculates the national income growth and its characteristics in China from 1981 to 2010 through parametric and nonparametric methods under open conditions. The results show that despite the remarkable achievements made in China’s national income and economic growth, the total factor growth rate has continued to decline in recent years. The increase in national income mainly relies on capital investment, and the foundation for sustainable growth is not strong. The worsening terms of trade also erode the contribution of output to income growth to a certain extent. The article also accounts for the elastic relationship between China’s factor and output as well as the price between the two, and obtains multi-dimensional dynamic characteristics about China’s economic structure. These characteristics have certain reference value for China’s economic restructuring and policy choices.