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2010年全球光伏装机大幅增长,未来上网电价补贴的下调已成必然,但预计影响不大。由于受到日本核危机影响,光伏装机规模目标将上调,全球光伏新增安装量能至少维持30%左右的增速。未来十年,中国光伏装机规模将大幅提升,预计到2020年甚至有可能超过50GW,但结构占比仍然有限。与此同时,2010年全球风电装机平稳增长,中国首次超越美国,跃居世界第一;并且,全球海上风电快速增长,未来欧洲海上风电独领风骚的局面将发生转变。风机价格下行、产能过剩这两大因素将推动中国风电行业的整合,“十二五”期间的风能利用重点在于并网难题的解决,“十三五”前后风电的发展将迎来又一个春天。
Global PV installed capacity increased substantially in 2010, and the downward adjustment of the feed-in tariff will become inevitable in the future, but it is not expected to have much impact. Due to the impact of Japan’s nuclear crisis, the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity will be raised, the global installed capacity of new PV can maintain at least 30% growth rate. In the next ten years, China’s PV installed capacity will increase substantially. It is estimated that it may even exceed 50GW by 2020, but its structure is still limited. In the meantime, global wind power installed capacity increased steadily in 2010, surpassing the United States for the first time in China and ranking first in the world. In addition, the rapid growth of offshore wind power in the world will lead to a change in the future domination of offshore wind power in Europe. Downward fan prices, overcapacity these two factors will promote the integration of China’s wind power industry, “” during the “12th Five-Year ” focus on the wind power to solve the problem of grid-connected, “13th Five-Year ” before and after the development of wind power will be welcomed Come another spring.