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在1975～1980年以一维平稳时间序列(简称本法)对橡胶白粉病和水稻三化螟发生期作长期(一年)预测,准确率分别为80和90％,效果比较理想。 1984～1985年用微型电子计算机(简称微机)以本法编程探索预测水稻三化螟发生期,得到初步结果。1987年以本法用微机预测廉江和高州县水稻三化螟发生期,准确率为87.5％,并使测报技术现代化,对生产将起到积极的作用。气象的反常变化会影响本法的准确性,但反常的气象变化总的是不多的。本法同理可预测其他农林病虫发生期,如能与其他方法中、短期预报配合使用,则效果会更佳。
The long-term (one year) prediction of rubber powdery mildew and rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis) outbreaks in one-dimensional stationary time series from 1975 to 1980 with accuracy rates of 80% and 90%, respectively, showed satisfactory results. From 1984 to 1985, the microcomputer was used to predict the occurrence of rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis) by using this method with the help of this method, and the preliminary results were obtained. In 1987, this computer-based method was used to predict the occurrence of rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis) in Lianjiang and Gaozhou counties with an accuracy rate of 87.5% and to modernize the measurement reporting technology, which will play a positive role in the production. Anomalous changes in meteorology can affect the accuracy of this law, but the abnormal meteorological changes are generally modest. The same law can predict the occurrence of other agroforestry pests and diseases, if used in conjunction with other methods, short-term forecasts, the effect will be better.