论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨用鼠带毒指数对鞍山市流行性出血热发病率进行预测的科学性,为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法根据《全国肾综合征出血热监测方案》开展人间及鼠间疫情监测,运用Spearman相关分析和χ2检验对2008—2014年鞍山市流行性出血热发病率与鼠带毒指数进行相关性分析。结果鞍山市流行性出血热监测点年平均发病率为1.796/10万,非监测点发病率为0.435/10万,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05);鞍山市流行性出血热发病率与鼠带毒指数呈线性相关关系,建立线性回归方程模型为:发病率=1.591×带毒指数-0.825。结论根据鼠带毒指数预测人间流行性出血热发病水平具有一定可靠性和参考价值,可为流行性出血人疫情的风险预警提供依据。
Objective To explore the scientific prediction of the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the city of Anshan with rat poison index and to provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention and control measures. Methods According to the National Monitoring Plan of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, human and mouse epidemic surveillance was conducted. Spearman correlation analysis and χ2 test were used to analyze the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Anshan City in 2008-2014. Results The annual average incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Anshan was 1.796 / lakh and the incidence of non-surveillance was 0.435 / lakh, the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05). The incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Anshan was correlated with Rat poisoning index showed a linear correlation, the establishment of linear regression equation model: morbidity = 1.591 × poisoning index -0.825. Conclusion Prediction of the incidence of human epidemic hemorrhagic fever based on the rat poison index has certain reliability and reference value, which may provide the basis for early warning of the risk of epidemic outbreak.