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由于全球经济复苏减速和欧债危机的反复恶化,2012年上半年中国出口出现明显下滑。这种不利局面能否持续?笔者认为,2012年下半年,如果欧元区能够避免希腊退出和西班牙银行业爆发系统性风险等“尾部事件”的发生,则全球经济增速就不会发生“断崖式”滑落,中国外贸有望成功“保十”。中国主要的贸易伙伴可以分为三个梯队:第一梯队为欧盟和美国、第二梯队为亚洲国家和地区、第三梯队为自然资源型国家和“金砖”国家。贸易模式可分为“东亚贸易模式”和“东亚之外模式”。“东亚贸易模
Due to the slowdown of global economic slowdown and the repeated deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe, China’s exports showed a marked decline in the first half of 2012. Whether this adverse situation can continue? The author believes that the second half of 2012, if the euro zone to avoid the withdrawal of Greece and the Spanish banking system, systemic risks such as the outbreak of ”tail events“ occurred, the global economic growth will not happen ”Cliff type “ slipped, China foreign trade is expected to ”Paul ten “. China’s major trading partners can be divided into three echelon: the first echelon of the EU and the United States, the second echelon for the Asian countries and regions, the third echelon for the natural resource-based countries and the ”BRIC“ countries. Trade patterns can be divided into ”East Asian trade patterns“ and ”East Asian patterns.“ ”East Asia trade model