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针对导弹电子设备故障预测问题,提出了一种基于综合环境加速退化试验(ADT)和粒子滤波的故障预测新方法。首先,不同于传统的ADT方案,仅以单个样本为试验对象,采用步进加速的思想,将性能退化理论拓展为加速性能退化理论(APDT),建立基于电子设备寿命退化速度的加速寿命退化模型。其次,为克服环境应力等测试不确定性因素对预测精度的影响,定义了电子设备退化度的概念,将寿命预测的不确定性问题转化为设备退化度最优估计问题,利用改进粒子滤波算法求解出电子产品动态退化的最优估计值,进而实现设备的全寿命评估。最后,实例说明该方法可行、有效,并大大提高了试验的效费比。
Aiming at the problem of missile electronic equipment fault prediction, a new fault prediction method based on integrated environment accelerated degradation test (ADT) and particle filter is proposed. First of all, different from the traditional ADT scheme, a single sample is taken as the test object and the idea of step acceleration is used to extend the theory of performance degradation into the theory of accelerated performance degradation (APDT) and establish an accelerated life degradation model based on the age degradation of electronic devices . Secondly, in order to overcome the influence of testing uncertainty factors such as environmental stress on prediction accuracy, the definition of electronic equipment degeneration degree is defined. The uncertainty of life prediction is transformed into the optimal equipment degeneration degree estimation problem. By using improved particle filter Solve the dynamic degradation of electronic products, the best estimate, and then realize the equipment life-cycle assessment. Finally, an example shows that this method is feasible and effective, and greatly increases the cost-effectiveness of the experiment.