世界银行发出警告,一旦发达国家央行突然退出经济刺激措施,极有可能导致流入新兴市场的资金最高萎缩80%,进而造成重大经济损害并引发部分国家陷入危机。警告有些冰冷,但绝非危言耸听。这种资本撤离首先伤害的是那些高度依赖外部融资,尤其是在短期内存在再融资风险的国家。比如巴西、印度、南非、印尼和土耳其等“脆弱五国”(Fragile Five),其负债企业将受到打击,银行也将殃及。 The World Bank warned that a sudden withdrawal of stimulus measures from the central banks of developed countries would most likely cause the inflow of capital into emerging markets to shrink by as much as 80%, resulting in major economic damage and triggering a crisis in some countries. Some cold warning, but not alarmist. The first such damage to capital withdrawals is those countries that are highly dependent on external financing, especially in the short term, where there is a risk of refinancing. Such as Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey “Fragile Five ”, its debt business will be hit, the bank will bring disaster.