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首先推敲Logistic模型的应用,在此基础上,总结Logistic模型可以进一步改进的地方。文献中有关Logistic模型回归系数的经济含义解释较为模糊,本研究通过比较解释变量各状态,以研究蔬菜价格波动背景下生产者行为变化影响因素为例,深化Logistic模型回归系数的经济含义。研究发现:若假定有其他经历的菜农在菜价剧烈波动背景下不放弃蔬菜种植的概率是50%,则仅有务农经历的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率为79.18%。同理,假设蔬菜种植非家庭主要收入的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率为50%时,以蔬菜种植为主要收入来源的菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的概率达84.44%。Logistic模型从经验上反应了菜农不放弃蔬菜种植的原因:蔬菜种植是主要收入来源,人生经历单一,务农经历长等。反过来这意味着当蔬菜价格波动剧烈频繁,风险增加时,若有其他可供选择的机会,生产者放弃蔬菜种植的可能性会变大。蔬菜价格波动和供给是相辅相成的关系,保障供给可以稳定蔬菜价格,蔬菜市场风险减小又可以进一步保障供给。
First of all, consider the application of Logistic model, and on this basis, summarize the Logistic model can be further improved. In the literature, the explanation of the economic meaning of the regression coefficient of Logistic model is rather vague. In this study, by comparing the explanatory variables, we study the influencing factors of producer behavior changes under the background of vegetable price volatility, and deepen the economic meaning of the regression coefficient of Logistic model. The study found that if the probability of non-abandonment of vegetables is assumed to be 50% for vegetable farmers assuming other experiences, the probability of vegetable farmers not abandoning vegetables only is 79.18%. By the same token, assuming that the probability of vegetable growers planting non-family primary income is 50%, the probability of vegetable growers with vegetable planting as the main source of income does not give up vegetable planting is 84.44%. The Logistic model empirically reflects the reason why vegetable growers do not give up vegetable cultivation: vegetable cultivation is the main source of income, life experiences are single and farming experience is long. This, in turn, means that producers are more likely to abandon their vegetables when there is more risk of vegetable price volatility and increased risk. Vegetable price fluctuations and supply are mutually reinforcing, guaranteeing supply can stabilize vegetable prices, reducing vegetable market risks and further safeguarding supply.