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本文提出在水文系统、发电机组数量、《水库调度方案》等影响水电企业未来收益的因素发生变化时,应从入库径流量入手预测水电企业未来收益,提出水流——电流——现金流的评估技术思路;介绍了主要水文预测方法及灰色系统理论在水文预测中的优势;在相关灰色系统理论的基础上,提出判断水文系统稳定状况的灰色相对差异法,并以案例进行了说明;将实物期权理论和灰色系统理论相结合,提出了水电企业价值评估的新思路,并将原来忽视的实物期权价值予以考虑。
This paper proposes that when the factors that affect the future earnings of hydropower enterprises such as hydrological system, the number of generating units, and the “reservoir dispatching plan” are changed, the future earnings of hydropower enterprises shall be predicted from the inbound runoff, and the assessment of current-current-cash flow Technical ideas; introduced the main hydrological forecasting methods and gray system theory in hydrological forecasting advantages; based on the gray system theory, proposed to determine the stability of the hydrological system gray relative difference method, and the case described; the physical Based on the combination of options theory and gray system theory, this paper puts forward a new idea of value evaluation of hydropower enterprises, and considers the value of real options that were neglected.