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一直处于持续增长状态的高考报名人数近两年来开始出现下降。与此同时,大学生“就业难”、企业“用工荒”的出现使得“高考降温”背后的解释似乎变得更加复杂。从人口波动的独特理论视角对“高考降温”做出全新的解读,可以撇清对这一现象存在的各种错误解读及臆想。分析结果表明,从全国宏观层面上,人口的长期波动导致的年龄结构变化是造成近两年我国高考人数开始出现下降的根本原因。预测分析发现由于人口惯性的影响,今后高考报考人数将在持续减少一段时期后逐步回升,但回升度幅度较小。因此,正确认识当前高考人数的变化,避免人云亦云地乱加揣测,对于优化教育资源配置,解决我国人才与就业矛盾,引导教育事业健康有序发展具有重要的现实意义。
College entrance examination has been in a state of sustained growth enrollment began to decline in the past two years. In the meantime, the emergence of college students “employment difficulties ” and enterprises “labor shortage ” makes the explanation behind “college entrance examination cooling” seem to be more complicated. From a unique theoretical perspective of population fluctuations on “college entrance examination cooling ” to make a completely new interpretation, you can skim all kinds of misunderstandings and imaginary existence of this phenomenon. The analysis shows that from the national macro level, the change of age structure caused by the long-term population fluctuation is the fundamental reason that the number of entrance examinations in our country started to decline in the past two years. Predictive analysis found that due to the impact of population inertia, the number of applicants in the future college entrance examination will continue to gradually decline after a period of recovery, but the recovery rate of smaller. Therefore, a correct understanding of the current changes in the number of college entrance examination, to avoid the specter of speculation, to optimize the allocation of education resources, to solve the contradiction between talent and employment in our country, and guide the healthy and orderly development of education has an important practical significance.