第二次世界大战以来直到现在,美国经济的趋势一般是上升的。其间有过几次降落,但是都没有达到严重的危急的程度。历次关于危机爆发的预测都没有实现。这就引起了天真的幻想和欺骗的宣传,说像美国这样的经济除了调整性的轻微的降落之外,再也不会有周期性的萧条了。可是,去年年底,在总结这年的经济比前年有了进一步上升的时候,美国当局和权威人士的预告是,今年上半年还会继续上升,但是下半年便会下降。有的说这只是短期的轻微的调整,以后还会稳步上升。有的像最近辞职的财政部长汉弗莱和前总统胡佛,却发出警告,叫大家当心令人伤脑筋的肖条或者比1929 Up till now, the trend of the U.S. economy has generally risen since the Second World War. How many times did it land in the meantime, but none of them reached a critical level? None of the previous predictions on the crisis have been realized. This gave rise to naive illusions and deceptive propaganda that no economy like the United States would have a cyclical depression other than a minor adjustment of readjustment. However, at the end of last year, while concluding that the economy of this year has risen more than the previous year, the notice from the U.S. authorities and authorities is that it will continue to rise in the first half of this year but will decline in the second half of the year. Some say that this is only a slight adjustment in the short term and will rise steadily in the future. Some, like the recently resigned Minister of Finance Humphrey and former President Hoover, have warned that everyone beware of the daunting pennant or the shame of 1929