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美国能源信息署(EIA)发表的《国际能源展望》2009(IEO)中对未来世界石油供应形势做出最新预测。这里的石油也称为液态燃料,包括常规石油、非常规石油和非石油液态燃料,即包括所有石油产品、天然气合成油、生物燃料和其它烃源产品,但不包括压缩天然气(CNG)、液化天然气(LNG)和氢气。EIA预测世界石油消费仍将继续增长,日消费量将从2006年的0.85亿桶增长到2030年的1.066亿桶。为了满足石油需求增长,2006～2030年世界石油产量将提高2200万桶/日。由于石油价格高,使开发非常规石油资源和使用增强型石油采收(EOR)技术提高常规石油产量都能获得经济利益。因此世界石油资源足以满足未来需求,但石油供应格局将随着价格及其他因素的影响而变化。
The International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO) published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) makes the latest forecast of the future oil supply in the world. Petroleum, also referred to herein as liquid fuels, includes conventional petroleum, unconventional petroleum and non-petroleum liquid fuels including all petroleum products, natural gas synthetic fuels, biofuels and other hydrocarbon products excluding compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefaction Natural gas (LNG) and hydrogen. EIA predicts that world oil consumption will continue to grow, with daily consumption rising from 85 million barrels in 2006 to 106.6 million barrels in 2030. In order to meet the growth of oil demand, the world oil output will increase by 22 million barrels / day from 2006 to 2030. Due to the high oil prices, economic benefits can be gained from developing unconventional oil resources and using enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies to increase conventional oil production. As a result, the world’s oil resources are sufficient to meet future demand, but the pattern of oil supply will vary with the price and other factors.