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构建基于双寡头垄断市场框架下物流地产开发决策的实物期权模型,讨论、研究和考虑开发建设成本与时间下最优开发规模与时机问题,并进行比较静态分析发现:不确定性较大时,物流地产的等待期权价值越高,领先开发商投资开发后,跟随开发商将等待一段时间直到市场需求冲击达到开发阈值时才会跟进进行投资开发,且其投资开发规模可能会超过领先开发商的投资开发规模;领先开发商投资开发的物流地产越多,跟随开发商投资开发的规模也越大,这说明了双寡头物流地产市场上,两寡头开发商之间容易相互攀比进行投资开发,导致开发过热。
This paper constructs a real option model based on decision-making of logistics real estate under the framework of duopoly market, discusses and studies the optimal development scale and timing under the condition of developing cost and time, and conducts comparative static analysis. It finds that when the uncertainty is large, Logistics real estate waiting for the higher the value of the option, the leading developers to invest in the development, follow the developers will wait for some time until the market demand impact will reach the development threshold will follow up investment and development, and its investment and development may exceed the scale of leading developers Of the investment and development scale; leading developers to invest in the development of logistics more real estate, follow the developers to invest in the development of the larger the size, which shows Duopoly logistics real estate market, the two oligarchs to easily compare with each other for investment and development, Lead to development overheating.