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近年来,我国房地产业快速发展,社会各界对房地产业高度关注。因此,把握房地产市场发展趋势的变动变得尤为重要。建立科学、有效的监测预警系统,对于引导房地产业沿着健康的道路发展,促进资源的合理利用,具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。本研究使用eviews软件,运用自回归移动平均法建立ARMA模型和指数平滑法建模这两种模拟预测方法,选取指标房地产投资额/固定资产投资额为预测对象,并以北京市为例,进行了动态趋势模拟并进行了短期预测。
In recent years, the rapid development of China’s real estate industry, the community is highly concerned about the real estate industry. Therefore, it is particularly important to grasp the changes in the development trend of the real estate market. Establishing a scientific and effective monitoring and early warning system has very important theoretical and practical significance for guiding the development of the real estate industry along the road of health and promoting the rational utilization of resources. In this study, using eviews software, using autoregressive moving average method to establish ARMA model and exponential smoothing modeling of these two simulation prediction methods, select the index of real estate investment / fixed asset investment as a forecast object, and to Beijing as an example, Dynamic trend simulation and short-term forecast.