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本文运用HP滤波法计算了1962年-2012年浙江省GDP潜在增长率,分析认为这期间浙江可以分为五个明显的中周期,而改革则是驱动增长中周期的关键因素。运用索洛生产函数法的分析则表明,资本是以往30余年浙江经济高速增长的主要动力,劳动力数量对经济增长影响较小,而全要素生产率在上世纪90年代后期之后没有明显的改善。受到投资增速下滑、劳动转移减缓以及可能的结构性减速效应影响,浙江经济增长将会有所放缓,而全要素生产率的改进则是避免经济增速出现大幅下滑的关键。
In this paper, we calculate the potential growth rate of Zhejiang Province from 1962 to 2012 using HP filter method. It is concluded that Zhejiang can be divided into five distinct mid-periods during this period, while the reform is the key factor driving the growth cycle. The analysis using Solow’s production function method shows that capital is the main driving force of Zhejiang’s rapid economic growth in the past 30 years. The amount of labor has little effect on economic growth. However, total factor productivity has not significantly improved since the late 1990s. Affected by the slowdown of investment growth, the slowdown of labor migration and the possible structural deceleration effect, economic growth in Zhejiang will slow down. Improvement of total factor productivity is the key to avoiding a sharp decline in economic growth.