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目的 :探索登革热发病与伊蚊种群动态变化和气候因素的关系 ,为登革热的防治和监测提供科学依据 .方法 :收集广东省 1990 / 2 0 0 1年的登革热发病资料 ,收集了潮州市的1995 / 2 0 0 1年伊蚊媒介监测资料及同期的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时间、降雨量、相对湿度等气象资料 ,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析的方法进行分析 .结果 :与媒介伊蚊密度有关的气象参数是 :降雨量、日照时间、降雨天数、平均气温、最低平均气温、相对湿度 ;经逐步回归分析得到回归方程 :Y^BI=2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1+0 0 2 0X2 - 0 4 18X3 其中X1代表最低平均气温、X2 代表降雨量、X3 代表相对湿度。登革热发病的Logistic回归方程 :p (I) =1/ [1+e( -7 850 + 0 3 9IB) ].结论 :气侯因素对伊蚊媒介密度的影响是复杂的 ,主要影响因素是最低平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度 ;影响登革热发病的主要因素是伊蚊密度 (BI) .
Objective: To explore the relationship between the incidence of Dengue fever and the population dynamics and climatic factors of Aedes mosquitoes and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and surveillance of Dengue fever.Methods: The incidence of dengue fever in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2001 was collected and collected. / 200 mosquito media monitoring data and the corresponding mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine duration, rainfall, relative humidity and other meteorological data were analyzed by correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis.Results: The meteorological parameters related to Aedes aegypti density are rainfall, sunshine duration, rainfall days, average temperature, minimum average temperature and relative humidity. The regression equation is obtained through stepwise regression analysis: Y ^ BI = 2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1 +0 0 2 0X2 - 0 4 18X3 where X1 is the lowest mean temperature, X2 is the rainfall, and X3 is the relative humidity. Logistic regression equation of incidence of dengue fever: p (I) = 1 / [1 + e (-7 850 + 0 3 9IB)]. Conclusion: The influence of climate on the density of Aedes mosquitoes is complex and the main influencing factors are the lowest Average temperature, rainfall, relative humidity; The main factor affecting the incidence of dengue fever is Aedes density (BI).