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纺织业的发展高度依赖于棉花。在纺织业持续增长的背景下,我国由棉花的净出口国变成最大的净进口国,全球经济的复苏将促进我国纺织业的增长,并进一步凸显棉花供给和需求之间的矛盾。以1978～2009年的数据为基础,在统计分析的基础上,利用协整模型检验棉花生产、国际贸易与纺织业的长期均衡关系,并通过脉冲响应模拟了在外部因素冲击下三者的动态响应态势。最后,从稳定纺织业长期发展的角度提出若干建议。
The development of the textile industry is highly dependent on cotton. Against the backdrop of sustained growth in the textile industry, China’s net exporter of cotton has become the largest net importer of the country. The recovery of the global economy will promote the growth of China’s textile industry and further highlight the contradiction between cotton supply and demand. Based on the data from 1978 to 2009, on the basis of statistical analysis, the co-integration model was used to test the long-term equilibrium relationship between cotton production, international trade and textile industry. The impulse response was used to simulate the dynamics of the three under the impact of external factors Respond to the situation. Finally, a number of suggestions are made from the perspective of stabilizing the long-term development of the textile industry.