突发事件发生后,明确信息的实时生命阶段对于建立有效且操作性强的应急信息管理措施至关重要。突发事件信息在传播过程中表现出生命周期特性,将突发事件信息生命过程划分为初生萌芽期、快速成长期、衰退死亡期三个阶段。将影响信息传播的关键要素抽象到贝叶斯网络模型中并给出贝叶斯网络结构学习方法,构建了突发事件信息生命阶段研判模型。最后,结合历史突发事件的有关数据进行Netica仿真,得出的结果能够实时、动态的判断突发事件信息所处的生命阶段,为政府进行突发事件应急信息管理提供理论参考。 After the emergencies, it is very important to establish a real-time life stage of the information to establish effective and operational emergency information management measures. The emergency information shows the life cycle characteristics in the process of communication, and divides the life process of emergency information into three stages: the sprout of newborn, the fast growing and the dead of declining. Abstracts the key elements that affect the information dissemination into the Bayesian network model and gives the Bayesian network structure learning method, and constructs the judgment model of the life stage of the emergency information. Finally, the Netica simulation based on the data of historical emergencies, the results can be real-time and dynamic judgment of the life stage of the incident information in order to provide a theoretical reference for the government emergency information management.