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目的探讨厦门市居民溺水死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市溺水综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2009—2014年厦门市居民溺水死亡资料,计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2009—2014年,厦门市居民溺水死亡率为1.54/10万,女性居民溺水死亡率年均上升12.77%,男性死亡率是女性的1.83倍。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差0.77%~4.45%,预测2015—2019年溺水死亡率有所上升,AYLL值有所下降。结论未来厦门市溺水死亡率有上升趋势,应重视溺水的预防控制工作。
Objective To explore the trend of death and life expectancy of drowning in Xiamen City, and provide evidence for the comprehensive prevention and treatment of drowning in Xiamen City. Methods The data of death from drowning in Xiamen residents from 2009 to 2014 were collected and analyzed. The mortality, AYLL and the percentage of annual change in mortality were calculated. The mortality and AYLL were estimated by GM (1,1) model prediction. Results From 2009 to 2014, the death rate of drowning residents in Xiamen City was 1.54 / 100000. The death rate of female residents increased by 12.77% annually and the male mortality rate was 1.83 times of that of women. The average relative error between predicted and actual values of GM (1,1) model is 0.77% ~ 4.45%. It is predicted that the mortality rate of drowning will increase and the value of AYLL will decrease from 2015 to 2019. Conclusion The mortality rate of drowning in Xiamen City will increase in the future. Prevention and control of drowning should be emphasized.