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讨论中国经济的周期性波动及宏观调控政策之得失,恐怕不能不留意经济周期背后的制度因素国家统计局数据显示,四五月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)已连续两个月环比下跌,增幅仅为1.8%但工业产品出厂价格指数(PPI)仍然走高,5月份达到5.9%。这种“剪刀差”表明,价格链条似乎断裂,生产过剩隐忧初现,再考虑到投资增长速度下跌,显示出中国经济有可能面临通货紧缩的风险。由此,学界开始热议,中国经济在中短期内,是否已逐渐趋冷,甚至不排除出现经济衰退的可能性。当然,官方并不同意这种看法。
Discuss the cyclical fluctuations in China’s economy and the pros and cons of macro-control policies, I am afraid we can not fail to pay attention to the institutional factors behind the economic cycle National Bureau of Statistics data show that in May and May consumer price index (CPI) fell for two consecutive months, the increase only Was 1.8% but the PPI of industrial products still went up, reaching 5.9% in May. This “scissors gap” shows that the price chain seems to be broken and that the over-production of over-capacity is beginning to emerge. Taking into account the drop in the rate of investment growth, it shows that China’s economy is at risk of deflation. As a result, the academic community began to heat up. Whether China’s economy has gradually cooled down in the short to medium term does not even rule out the possibility of a recession. Of course, officials do not agree with this view.