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农作物秸秆是地球上第一大可再生资源,为能更好的合理开发利用农作物秸秆资源,缓解日益突出的资源短缺、环境污染与经济发展的矛盾,对其进行预测研究是非常之必要的。本文系统分析了江苏省秸秆资源现状及其资源量变化趋势影响因素,并以1990年-2008年历史数据和2009年农作物秸秆资源普查数据为基础,选取理论资源量、人均资源量和单位播种面积资源量为预测评价指标,基于BP神经网络(BP-ANN)对江苏省农作物秸秆资源的评价指标发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:建立的BP神经网络预测模型的相对误差基本在5%的范围内,平均相对误差在2%左右,预测结果与实际有较高的拟合度,且对数据具有较好的适应能力。在未来5年内,江苏省秸秆理论资源量呈平稳发展趋势;而人均资源量和单位播种面积资源量呈下降趋势,前者较后者下降幅度大。预测结果与当地发展规划趋势相一致,该方法具有很强的实际应用价值。本文最后针对江苏省实际,提出了农作物秸秆资源开发利用相关建议。
Crop straws are the first renewable resource on earth. In order to better and reasonably develop and utilize crop straws resources and alleviate the increasingly prominent shortage of resources, the contradiction between environmental pollution and economic development, it is very necessary to forecast them. This paper systematically analyzes the current situation of straw resources in Jiangsu Province and the impact of changes in resources trends, and 1990-2008 historical data and the 2009 crop straw resources survey data, select the theoretical resources, per capita resources and unit sown area The amount of resources is a forecasting index, and the forecasting trend of crop straw resources in Jiangsu Province is predicted based on BP neural network (BP-ANN). The results show that the relative error of the established BP neural network prediction model is basically within 5%, the average relative error is about 2%, the prediction result has a higher fitting degree with the actual, and the data has better adaptability . In the next five years, the theoretical amount of stalks in Jiangsu Province has shown a steady trend of development. However, the per capita amount of resources and the sown area of resources per unit area have shown a downward trend, with the former showing a more significant decline than the latter. The forecast result is consistent with the trend of local development planning. This method has strong practical value. Finally, according to the actual situation in Jiangsu Province, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the development and utilization of crop straw resources.