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本文根据我国旅游研究院对全国游客满意度水平进行分季度的数据,建立ARIMA时间序列模型进行数据分析,并对全国满意度水平进行预测,为制定旅游政策,对旅游市场进行宏观调控提供理论依据。
According to the quarterly data of China National Tourism Research Institute, the ARIMA time series model is established to analyze the data and forecast the level of national satisfaction. This study provides the theoretical basis for the formulation of tourism policies and the macro regulation and control of the tourism market .