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目的为进一步探索SARS的传播和流行规律及其与预防控制措施的关系;方法利用数学和传播动力学的方法,建立流行病学数学模型。将人群分为6类,即易感人群、暴露人群、疑似人群、确诊人群、恢复人群与死亡人群。应用天津市的流行资料调整各参数方程并进行拟合和模拟。结果基于确定性微分方程,对重要的流行参数给出了估计方法,评估疾病流行过程中的干预措施的有效性。结论模拟天津市SARS的流行情况,并对预防控制措施的执行情况进行评价。提示在保持相应控制措施的情况下,SARS的流行是可以防止和控制的。
The purpose is to further explore the spread of SARS and the prevalence of SARS and its prevention and control measures; methods using mathematical and communication dynamics method to establish mathematical models of epidemiology. The population is divided into six categories, namely susceptible populations, exposed populations, suspected populations, diagnosed population, recovery and death of the population. Application of Tianjin popular data to adjust the parameters of the equation and the fitting and simulation. Results Based on deterministic differential equations, estimates of important epidemiological parameters are given to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in the epidemic. Conclusion The prevalence of SARS in Tianjin was simulated and the implementation of prevention and control measures was evaluated. It indicates that the epidemic of SARS can be prevented and controlled under the corresponding control measures.