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概率统计的理论与方法在不确定性投资决策中起着重要的作用.文章从安全首要的决策视角,分析信贷约束对投资者风险投资行为是否存在影响以及如何影响.在存款利率和贷款利率不等且存在贷款额度限制的融资背景下,首先建立了一种包含融资资产的改进型安全首要(MSF)投资组合选择模型,然后给出了最优投资组合以及MSF有效前沿的解析表示以及图形示例,进而解释了利率变化和贷款限制对MSF风险投资行为的影响.研究发现:提高贷款利率和设定贷款限制,既可以预防投资者的违约风险,也可能造成MSF投资者的投资效率损失.因此,合理调整存贷款利率与设定贷款限额有助于发挥货币政策对投资市场的有效调节作用.
The theory and method of probability statistics plays an important role in the decision-making of uncertainty investment.The article analyzes the influence of the credit constraint on the venture capital behavior of investors from the perspective of safety first decision-making and how it affects.When the deposit interest rate and loan interest rate are not And so on, and with the limitation of loan amount, firstly, a modified safety principal (MSF) portfolio selection model including financing assets is established, and then the optimal investment portfolio and the analytic representation of the MSF effective frontier and the graphic examples , And then explains the impact of interest rate changes and loan restrictions on MSF venture capital.The study found that increasing the loan interest rate and setting the loan limit can not only prevent the default risk of investors but also result in the loss of investment efficiency of MSF investors. . Properly adjusting deposit and lending rates and setting loan limits will help to exert the effective regulatory role of monetary policy on the investment market.