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应用动态计量经济理论与方法,研究了干散货运输船舶订购的内在影响机制,分析了3种主要干散货船型的新船价格、二手船价格和期租金率与新船订购量之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:不同船型的新船价格之间、二手船价格之间均不存在协整关系,而各种船型的订购量、新船价格、二手船价格和期租金率之间存在协整关系;船舶订购量与期租金率负相关,与新船价格正相关;Capsize型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量正相关,Panamax型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量负相关,Handymax型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量关系不显著;各种船型的期租金率对于船舶订购量的冲击最大;Handy-max型船舶的新船造价对于订购量的冲击在各类船舶中最小;Panamax型船舶的二手船价格对于订购量的冲击是正向的,而Capsize型船舶和Handymax型船舶二手船价格对于订购量的冲击是负向。
By using the dynamic econometrics theory and method, this paper studies the inherent influence mechanism of the order of dry bulk carriers, analyzes the relationship between the price of new ships, the price of used ships, the period rent rates and the orders of new ships for three major dry bulk carriers Dynamic relationship. The results show that there is no cointegration relationship between the price of new ships of different ship types and the price of second-hand ships, and there is a cointegration relationship between the order quantity of various ships, the price of new ships, the price of used ships and the period rent rate ; Ship order volume is negatively related to the period rent rate and positively correlated with the new ship price; second-hand ship price of the Capsize ship is positively related to its subscription volume; second-hand ship price of the Panamax ship is negatively correlated with its order volume; second hand ship of the Handymax ship The price does not have a significant relation with the order quantity; the period rent rate of various types of ships has the most impact on the ship order volume; the impact of the new ship cost of Handy-max type ship to the order quantity is the smallest among all kinds of ships; The impact of the price on the quantity ordered is positive, while the price of used ships of the Capsize and Handymax ships is negative for the order volume.