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资源与环境是人类生存和发展的重要基础。北京是中国的政治文化中心,资源高度依赖外省市供应,随着需求的不断增加,其可持续发展将面临更加严峻的挑战。本研究通过构建以水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)三者为主体并涵盖社会、经济和环境子系统的复杂系统因果关联网络;运用系统动力学仿真技术,实现了对北京市水-能源-粮食关联(W-E-F Nexus)系统的动力学仿真模拟,预测了北京市W-E-F变化趋势,并开展了W-E-F Nexus系统敏感性分析。研究发现2020年水资源消耗总量预计超过38亿吨;能源供应数量预计不足2600万吨标准煤,地热能等清洁一次能源供应逐渐占据主导地位,能源消费总量预计下降至6865万吨标准煤,其中超过62%的能源消耗将依赖省外调入;粮食消费总量预计将超过730万吨,粮食单产数量在2014-2016年经过短暂调整后开始持续提升,到2020年每公顷产量预计将超过7800公斤,粮食自给率经过调整将再度恢复到2012年20%的水平;能源系统是现阶段提升北京W-E-F综合可持续发展能力的突破口;相比于单一资源政策,基于非资源系统的决策行为影响效果将更为深广。
Resources and environment are important bases for the survival and development of mankind. Beijing is a political and cultural center of China. Its resources are highly dependent on the supply from other provinces and cities. As its needs continue to increase, its sustainable development will face even tougher challenges. In this study, we construct a complex system causality network that is mainly composed of water, energy and food (WEF) and covers social, economic and environmental subsystems. By using system dynamics simulation technology, The dynamics simulation of WEF Nexus system predicted the trend of WEF in Beijing and carried out the sensitivity analysis of WEF Nexus system. The study found that the total water consumption in 2020 is expected to exceed 3.8 billion tons; the estimated amount of energy supply is estimated to be less than 26 million tons of standard coal, and the primary clean energy supply such as geothermal energy will gradually dominate. The total energy consumption is expected to drop to 68.65 million tons of standard coal Of which over 62% of energy consumption will depend on external redeployment; the total food consumption is expected to exceed 7.3 million tons and the per unit yield of grain will continue to increase after a brief adjustment in 2014-2016. The output per hectare is expected to be Over 7,800 kilos, the food self-sufficiency rate will once again be restored to 20% of the level in 2012. The energy system is the breakthrough point to enhance the comprehensive and sustainable development capability of Beijing WEF at this stage. Compared with the single resource policy, the non-resource-based decision-making behavior The effect will be more profound.