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化工区在创造规模效益的同时,也带来了区域性的高风险。化工区事故场景及扩展风险的分析已成为保障化工区安全稳定运行亟需解决的关键问题。基于工业事故风险评估方法,考虑安全屏障的安全功能对风险的削减作用,建立了改进的领结图,并引入经典风险矩阵以实现对装置事故场景的初步构建;在考虑传统的事故概率和严重度的基础上,将区域的脆弱度作为化工区事故扩展风险的重要表征要素,得到化工区事故在区域内所能形成的扩展风险的分布,进一步丰富了区域风险内涵。以某化工装置区为例进行分析,结果表明,该方法可为化工区事故扩展效应的预测及土地使用安全规划提供必要的技术依据。
Chemical Zone in creating economies of scale at the same time, but also brought a high regional risk. Analysis of accident scene and expansion risk in chemical industry zone has become a key issue to be solved in order to ensure the safe and stable operation of chemical industry zone. Based on the industrial accident risk assessment method, considering the effect of the safety function of the safety barrier on reducing the risk, an improved tie graph is established and a classical risk matrix is introduced to realize the initial construction of the device accident scenario. Considering the traditional probability and severity of the accident , Taking the fragility of the region as an important character of the expansion risk of the accident in the chemical industry zone, the distribution of the extended risk that can be formed in the accident of the chemical industry zone is obtained, which further enriches the connotation of regional risk. Taking a chemical plant zone as an example, the results show that this method can provide the necessary technical basis for the prediction of accident expansion effect and land use safety planning in the chemical industry zone.