近年来，全球各地发生的洪灾已说明洪水是当前危及人类社会生存发展的最大的自然灾害之一。它所造成的人员伤亡、经济损失及环境破坏都是巨大的。尽管到２１世纪初仍不可能完全消除这种危险，但近年来在这方面进行的研究和采用的新手段，使提高洪水预报精度和加强洪水灾害管理? In recent years, floods in various parts of the world have demonstrated that floods are one of the largest natural disasters currently threatening the survival and development of humankind. It has caused huge casualties, economic losses and environmental damage. Although it is still impossible to eliminate this danger completely by the beginning of the 21st century, the research and new means adopted in this regard in recent years have made it possible to improve the accuracy of flood forecasts and strengthen flood management.