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在开展应急救援需求特征分析的基础上,将需求分布问题归为管控条件下的运输优化问题,借鉴运筹学思想,建立基于运输问题的应急救援需求分布模型。其次,引入应急期限要求、通行能力约束、路径阻抗动态时变等影响因素,对运输问题模型进行改进。为便于求解,进一步将模型转化为基于概率分析的救援需求分阶段优化模型,该模型将车辆出行时间视为服从正态分布的随机变量,利用出行时间方差的调整反映不同阶段路径阻抗的变化,能够在满足救援响应时间的前提下,解得运输成本最小的需求矩阵。案例研究证明这个模型能够满足应急期限要求并刻画路径阻抗的动态时变特征,达到了预期效果。
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of emergency rescue demand, the distribution of demand is classified as transportation optimization under the condition of management and control. Drawing on the thought of operational research, the emergency rescue demand distribution model based on transportation is established. Secondly, the paper introduces the factors such as the requirements of emergency period, traffic capacity constraints and the dynamic change of path impedance, and improves the transportation problem model. In order to facilitate the solution, the model is further transformed into a staged optimization model of rescue demand based on probabilistic analysis. The model considers the travel time of vehicles as a random variable subject to normal distribution and utilizes the adjustment of travel time variance to reflect the changes of path impedance at different stages, Can meet the rescue response time under the premise of solving the transport cost minimum demand matrix. Case studies show that this model can meet the emergency deadline requirements and characterize the dynamic time-varying characteristics of the path impedance, to achieve the desired results.